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House Renovations
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12/05/2008, 8:37
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EcoPower
Joined on 07/05/2008
Posts 32
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Re: Is underfloor heating really worth the effort
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Gosh - what a response and your points are well made. My belief re cost of PV stays the same however and this belief is based predominantly upon economics and the product life cycle. My opinion is that we are only at the middle of the introduction phase in the product life cycle so still growth and maturity to come, but I suspect even this will change as new technologies are introduced thereby distracting manufacturers from focusing on current core products and how they position these in the market. As you rightly note, many of the manufacturers are based in China and the costs of shipping are increasing all the time. Additionally the costs of shipping also affects the manufacturers regards the supply of raw materials. I am told by colleagues in the far east that the cost of labour is also increasing as it did in Korea some time ago so this will affect the 'bottom line'.
To further confuse things the export (buy back price of electricity rates) is expected to change (reduce) as is happening in many European countries and now also in the USA who are the largest consumer of this type of technology. Because of this the race is on for prospects to buy their PV systems to beat this expected reduction in buy back rates which will only serve to put a big 'blip' in the product life cycle curve.
I think you are absolutely right when you mention the associated control systems and as I'm sure you know this area is strongly dominated by just a couple of manufacturers. If we saw a change here then that certainly would affect matters favourably.
It's a difficult call but I still believe that the cost of PV will not change significantly in the near future and there are many variables which affect in this equation.
All that said I sincerely hope you are right as it can only help all of us.
Regards
Marc.
www.ecopower.eu.com
Renewable Energy need not cost the Earth
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12/05/2008, 10:06
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Gluestick

Joined on 22/03/2006
UK and Nord Pas de Calais
Posts 2,342
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Re: Is underfloor heating really worth the effort
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As with all technologies, things move on, Marc.
At present, it seems Gallium Arsenide offers certain advantages over Silicon.
It is impossible to say where the market is, currently, as whilst parts are perhaps in the middle of their cycle (my earlier example Yachts e.g.), others are in their infancy, as different technologies or combinations of technologies emerge.
What is clear, is the new urgency driven by insane fossil fuel prices, themselves driven by greed of major oil companies.
Original PVs used Selenium: later realisations used Silicon: and then Gallium Arsenide was hailed as the new wonder substrate for a range of semiconductor devices. And now a combination of elements and compounds are being exploited.
http://www.copper.org/publications/newsletters/innovations/2007/05/solar_energy.html
Early realisations were mainly in specific application areas such as SatCom and of course, the Apollo Programme and NASA kick-started serious apps of PV for various space exploration projects, and particularly the moon landings.
PV research was really going ahead rapidly when I was working for a short time in Silicon Valley, Calif., in the mid 80s.
What has happened, as I suggested before, is that Thin Film Technology now allows very cost-effective production for both fixed and mobile arrays.
Indeed, in California, amongst other places, commercial buildings are constructed where whole glass "walls" are faced with thin film PV arrays.
Personally, I think the next 20 years will force ever-cheaper PV, Solar Heating and renewables (such as Bio-Mass etc) as well as huge advances in insulatation and "House Conditioning" environmental controls (sort of upmarket VMC with effective waste heat recovery) as natural fossil-based fuel costs rise out of sight, driven by rapidly increasing demand from Asia.
New houses will have whole roofs of thin film PV arrays as a normal planning constraint.
Interesting to me how rainwater recovery and underground storage tanks in France are quickly becoming common now: we talked about this, with Grey Water Recovery, on this site, some years back.
It will be a very exciting period!
Anyone working in the Renewables area like our own Pool Guy, is in for a boom era.
http://photovoltaics.sandia.gov/docs/PVFSCGallium_Arsenide_Solar_Cells.htm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cells
"Yes, but that apart, Mrs Lincoln, did you enjoy the play?"
Gluestick
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12/05/2008, 11:57
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EcoPower
Joined on 07/05/2008
Posts 32
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Re: Is underfloor heating really worth the effort
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Quote: What is clear, is the new urgency driven by insane fossil fuel prices, themselves driven by greed of major oil companies.
Oh how true. To compound matters, governments (the taxman) enjoy ever increasing revenues from TVA, VAT, etc levied on these sources which does dissappoint me. To rub salt into the wound, today Centrica have ''suggested'' energy prices will again increase due to continuing rises in Oil and Gas costs.
Bearing in mind that Shell & BP are some of the biggest players in the Solar PV market one wonders whether this goes conflicts with their main source of revenue?
I suspect Thin Film Technology may have a positive effect on the market but I believe the main USA source has some very nicely guarded patents on what seems to be a very slick production method so I wonder where they will position these products? Amorphous PV seems to be the current 'in thing' which is understandable.
My colleague in Spain tells me new builds have to employ some form of solar energy system within the construction, but the vast majority of products used to comply with this requirement is Solar Thermal Syphon purely because of cost. I do hope you are right about decreasing prices for PV.
Yes, interesting times ahead indeed. I hope I'm around to see it.
Marc
www.ecopower.eu.com
Renewable Energy need not cost the Earth
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12/05/2008, 12:24
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Gluestick

Joined on 22/03/2006
UK and Nord Pas de Calais
Posts 2,342
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Re: Is underfloor heating really worth the effort
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Marc:
Oil companies such as Shell and BP have a sort of token investment in alternative technologies.
For me, this is simply a sop to the green lobby, whilst they continue to rape the globe's resources.
http://greenroofs.wordpress.com/2007/05/24/solar-power-to-enhance-green-roofs/
http://www.suntech-power.com/
Whiulst the USA leads certain areas of semiconductor research and development, increasingly Asian companies such as Samsung are spending far greater proportions of Gross Revenues on pure research and development. Asia now leads the world in silicon laydown and fab.
We have a current sort of pre-conception that PVs and indeed Evac Tube Arrays need to be mounted on roofs: they don't, of course, and if one has the space, ground mounted arrays, with sun-following servo motors are superior: difficult to rotate your house from AM to PM!
One of the great management gurus I studied, Theodore Levett, told the story of the board of a US railroad corporation assembling for a meeting in the 1930s.
before the formal board meeting commenced, the President asked the members to consider and answer one salient question: "What business are we in?"
After a due pause, one Director said, "Why! We're in the railroad business!"
"Wrong!" said the President, "We're in the transportation business. And because we think we're in the railroad business, well that's precisely why we're going bankrupt!"
The new kid on the block was the airplane; and increasing numbers wanted to fly from one end of the States to the other, rather than take days on a train.
Oil and gas companies are in the energy business: it ought to have been such as Exon with their obscene wealth who led the charge into solar, fuel cells and other new energy areas. Simply because they did not, they, like many other major corporations will gradually vanish as fossil fuels exhaust: and I for one will be cheering! Same happened with such as British Steel: they were in the materials business and ought to have invested heavily in the good days in such areas as ceramics: like Japan did! Modern automotive engines will probably (Extra High Temp - Lean Burn) have ceramic bore liners and pistons, able to withstand the incredibly high working temps.
With energy, cheap supplies from the Mid East has led both Europe and the USA into a sort of cloud cuckoo land of profligate over-consumption: larger and larger gas guzzlers like the appallingly gross Chelsea Tractors; and homes and buildings where the solution to cold is to throw increasingly large amounts of heat into the building and let it escape through windows, doors and roofs.
"Yes, but that apart, Mrs Lincoln, did you enjoy the play?"
Gluestick
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12/05/2008, 13:35
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EcoPower
Joined on 07/05/2008
Posts 32
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Re: Is underfloor heating really worth the effort
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Interesting comments especially regards the pre-conception that solar has to be mounted on a roof. Perhaps this is in part due to the net metering rates for electricity via PV which is 0.55 centimes for roof mounted PV and only 0.30 centimes for ground mounted so everbody automatically thinks 'the roof it is then''.
Unfortunately, as you rightly eluded to previously regards system components, the cost vs return of a commercially available tracking system is questionable. Mind you, for solar thermal todays controllers can accomodate orientations other than solar south with reasonable efficiency.
Here's an interesting snippet:
In France, for instance, dwelling and office buildings output around 90 million tons of CO2 per year, out of a total of 385 million tons. The aim of the national “Climate 2004” plan is to divide France's
emissions by four by the beginning of 2050, and promote the use of
solar and other renewable energies. However, few economic players seem
interested, whether they be consultants, research departments,
manufacturers, or installers. “In the 1970s there were as many as 60-70
manufacturers of solar thermal collectors. There are considerably fewer
today,”
If I had to place a long term bet it would be on hybrid-thermal (PV/T) systems - but it's just going to need the right level of investment from industry / government. I believe it's a French chap leading some of this research?
Lastly, I couldn't agree with your last point more - this point will in fact be the first article in a series for a national newspaper. Whole house energy audit and efficiency plan etc.
Have we strayed off the subject of the initial post a little? Will this be the longest thread on the forum?
Marc
www.ecopower.eu.com
Renewable Energy need not cost the Earth
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12/05/2008, 14:27
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Gluestick

Joined on 22/03/2006
UK and Nord Pas de Calais
Posts 2,342
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Re: Is underfloor heating really worth the effort
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Marc:
Personally, I feel this is critically important!
When Mrs Gluey and I bought our French house, heating oil was circa 30 cents/Litre: now it is circa three times the cost. I am amazed at just how many people are not using their CH systems, simply because they cannot afford the cost.
Thus those planning on moving to France should factor into their TCO (Total Cost of Ownership), alternative heating systems.
Fortunately, France has a head start on most with its extensive nuclear programme: additionally, Pas de Calais is sprouting wind turbines like Dragon's Teeth!
Not being a full-time resident, as yet, whilst I planned on oil-fired CH, I have prevaricated, gone through pretty deep research into wood pellets and other bio-mass energy sources and am now probably focused on electricity on cheap rate (Heures Creuse) charging a large thermal store, with evac tube top up.
I've discounted UFH from ground source as whilst it's good for a new build or barn conversion (e.g.) the sheer dislocation cost for an old established property is not really viable.
We have gone over this a number of times: worth a search through this forum area.
What is really needed to galvanise solar, is a government looking at the much longer term, rather than the next election: that said, France has been far more forward looking than most European states, hence the forward planning and investment in trains and the TGV, the peage and autoroute systems and of course, nuclear electricity.
Difficult for a state to go head-to-head with its own asset, however now that France the state has severely diluted its own shares in both Total and Elf-Acquitaine (since the 80s/90s) no reason for a major push into solar, with seriously significant tax credits and grants (plus EU funds) for R & D.
With copious solar energy from Paris, going South I have a feeling that France like Spain, Greece and Portugal will soon take the initiative.
"Yes, but that apart, Mrs Lincoln, did you enjoy the play?"
Gluestick
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12/05/2008, 14:54
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jxedwards
Joined on 07/11/2004
Lot, South Wales, Sakhalin Island
Posts 140
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Re: Is underfloor heating really worth the effort
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Gluestick,
I tend to agree with you on most of your comments.
However before you wish the demise of XomShellBP Oil Co ACME Inc please wait another 3/4 years til we have finished our place!!!!
Back to the subject based on our UK conservatory experience UFH a big thumbs up and will be installed in Le Presbytere in the next 12 months using either a Rayburn or Villager wood burner as the source.
John
Even a stopped clock is correct twice a day!!
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12/05/2008, 15:11
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EcoPower
Joined on 07/05/2008
Posts 32
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Re: Is underfloor heating really worth the effort
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I admire your passion for the subject and wish all customers did a similar amount of research.
It's a very contraversial subject, but I have to admit that one of the reasons we tend to like Electric UFH is because of Frances substantial use of Nuclear for electricity production - i.e. very low carbon footprint when compared to coal etc.
As regards the oil situation we too have friends that are not using (or at least severely limiting) the use of their oil fired central heating systems. That said, (and its genuinely not intended as advertising), we WILL have a product guaranteed to reduce Oil / Gas / LPG consumption dramatically very soon. The friends I mention have volunteered to be our resident data collection site for this product. The purpose of mentioning this is that we would like to try and obtain either TVA relief or Tax Credits for customers on these products and ADEME etc are not playing ball. It is obviously not in the interests of the Oil / other companies and we certainly won't be taking on BP, Shell, etc etc. So, any ideas or help in this matter greatly appreciated. It really is in everybodies interest.
The idea of a thermal store is probably sound as you suggest the solar will provide a 'top up'. For this I agree - but only as a 'top up'. A thermal store of any significance is large both in size and volume so too much for solar on it's own.
I also agree re Geothermal. It is costly and disruptive - vertical bore holes seem to cost much more here than in the UK which greatly surprised me. Personally, for a new build or conversion I would opt for a Canadian / Provencal well before GSHP/ASHP. Very cheap to incorporate and if driven by a Solar PV fan system then a real winner.
As for TCO then insulate, insulate, insulate - in that order and if you need it to be eco friendly then sheeps wool, recycled paper etc etc.
I actually suspect some of the incentives will be reduced soon vis a vis the anticipated reduction in net metering prices and the tax credit scheme ending in 2009 - that said even this is something of a scam and suppliers are certainly not telling the truth about these. ADEME cannot (will not?) comment on what, if anything will replace the scheme so we shall have to wait and see.
Again I hope you are right about France taking some sort of initiative but I remain sceptical. There are still many 'jobs for the boys' schemes which only serve to increase product costs with Qualisol being a prime example.
Regards
Marc
www.ecopower.eu.com
Renewable Energy need not cost the Earth
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12/05/2008, 16:28
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powerdesal

Joined on 07/01/2006
Sharjah U.A.E
Posts 2,173
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Re: Is underfloor heating really worth the effort
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Gluestick wrote: | Fortunately, France has a head start on most with its extensive nuclear programme: additionally, Pas de Calais is sprouting wind turbines like Dragon's Teeth!
Not being a full-time resident, as yet, whilst I planned on oil-fired CH, I have prevaricated, gone through pretty deep research into wood pellets and other bio-mass energy sources and am now probably focused on electricity on cheap rate (Heures Creuse) charging a large thermal store, with evac tube top up.
I've discounted UFH from ground source as whilst it's good for a new build or barn conversion (e.g.) the sheer dislocation cost for an old established property is not really viable. |
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GS, We have spoken in the past at length about heating alternatives, I will be really dissappointed if you are a supporter of those "blots on the landscape" known as wind turbines. Contrary to your focus on electricity, I am seriously tending towards log gasification backed up or rather supplemented by evac tube solar.
I totally agree about GS heat pumps, mainly on cost of boreholes, I could perhaps live with the dislocation although I am not sure SWMBO would appreciate the destruction of her veggie garden, albeit temporarily-ish.
I totally agree with "Insulation, Insulation, Insulation by Marc, but then I am a bit of an insulation bore, or anorak if you prefer.
Steve Sharjah (but not for long ) + 50 (in France) ...........................................................................
7 days Ins'Allah (1 with the packers, 2 for the week end, 4 for work)( or maybe 8, or 9, or 10 or 11 or....)
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France Forum » Building and Re... » House Renovatio... » Re: Is underfloor heating really worth the effort
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