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27/04/2008, 18:33 Gluestick Joined on 22/03/2006 UK and Nord Pas de Calais Posts 2,342 Re: Aspirations..................................  Dick Smith wrote: Ah! The Metro - a free newspaper owned by the Daily Mail. Hardly a Journal of Record... 2. Recorded crimes involving firearms Peter Kaiza • Firearm crimes involving any type of injury fell by 19 per cent in 2006/07 from 5,004 in 2005/06 to 4,065 in 2006/07.   http://www.homeoffice.gov.uk/rds/pdfs08/hosb0308.pdf   Your Cited Source!   Now, according to my maths, 4,065 divided by 365 = 11.1369   Lies, damned lies and statistics?   "Yes, but that apart, Mrs Lincoln, did you enjoy the play?" Gluestick    Report

27/04/2008, 18:45 Albert the InfoGipsy Joined on 01/07/2006 SDF, somewhere in 56 Posts 510 Re: Aspirations..................................  Dick Smith wrote:  Albert the InfoGipsy wrote:  Dick Smith wrote: BB - I'm a committed Labour supporter Can we get the rest of them committed as well? Yeah, well, it's comments like that that keep the level of debate to the lowest common denominator, isn't it? Why is it, Dick, that you can make jokes at other people's expense but you get all wound up at a bit of teasing? Quite honestly I believe that the main classifications of labour supporters nowadays are: Traditionalists, mostly in the industrial heartlands, who keep hoping that the party will go back to its roots Opportunists, mostly what used to be called yuppies, who realise that much of New Labour policy is to the right of  Dave's Tories. I can't see the traditionalists getting any joy unless/until there are major socioeconomic upheavals. If Labour were to go back to the agendas of the 60's & 70's as things are then they'd lose the support of the opportunists and be out of power for a generation. In my opinion the reason that turnout gets lower at every election is that it is becoming harder and harder to see any real differences between the major parties and nobody has the courage to try things like voting for the Greens.   Albert the InfoGipsy "So welcome to the Citadel where the question is 'Am I?'"    Report

27/04/2008, 18:48 Dick Smith Joined on 23/08/2004 Surrey and Manche (Pays Mortainais) Posts 8,732 Re: Aspirations.................................. Teasing I don't mind, Albert. But the OP asked for a serious debate. Possibly some intelligent comments. And there is a difference between teasing and insulting. Oh, and in case you forgot, Labour supporters won the last 3 elections. Regards Dick Smith Nowhere is there warmth to be found Among those afraid of losing their ground    Report

27/04/2008, 18:56 Gluestick Joined on 22/03/2006 UK and Nord Pas de Calais Posts 2,342 Re: Aspirations.................................. However, of course, if Labour had have invoked PR as promised in their 1997 manifesto, then they would have lost after 1997. Which is pretty illustrative of how confused and dispirited the British electorate are right now: as more than one poster has stated in this thread.   "Yes, but that apart, Mrs Lincoln, did you enjoy the play?" Gluestick    Report

27/04/2008, 18:58 Dick Smith Joined on 23/08/2004 Surrey and Manche (Pays Mortainais) Posts 8,732 Re: Aspirations.................................. No. Your comic claimed that 8 people a day were shot. That is 2900 a year - shot. Which is not borne out by the figures. The official statistics state that there were c500 injuries in gun-related crimes, and roughly one fatality a week, not the 8 a day you were suggesting. Far too many, but not enough to provoke the hysteria of your post. Not every gun related crime involved someone being shot. Half of all gun-related crimes involved airguns. This is what the figures say: SUMMARY   • Firearms (excluding air weapons) were reported to have been used in 9,650 recorded crimes in 2006/07. This was a 13 per cent decrease over the previous year, following a slight increase of 0.2 per cent in the previous year. The overall number of firearm offences (including air weapons) fell by 14 per cent: from 21,527 in 2005/06 to 18,489 in 2006/07. • Air weapons were reported to have been used in 8,839 recorded crimes, a decrease of 15 per cent compared to 2005/06. • There were 2,517 offences in which the weapon was classified as an imitation in 2006/07, a 23 per cent decrease compared to 2005/06. Handgun offences were down by 11 per cent to 4,175 in 2006/07. • Serious or fatal injury accounted for three per cent of all firearm crimes in 2006/07. There were 566 such injuries (including 59 fatalities) resulting from crimes that involved a firearm (including air weapons), 12 per cent fewer than in 2005/06. • Firearm crimes involving any type of injury fell by 19 per cent in 2006/07 from 5,004 in 2005/06 to 4,065 in 2006/07. There was a 23 per cent decrease in the number of offences involving handguns causing injury in 2006/07, following a 30 per cent increase in the previous year. • Weapons (excluding air weapons) were fired in 40 per cent of firearm crimes. Handguns were fired in 12 per cent of the offences where they were involved, and shotguns in 38 per cent. • The number of firearm robberies fell by three per cent in 2006/07, having risen by ten per cent in the previous year. Thirty-seven per cent of these were committed in public highways, the number of which increased by one per cent from 1,439 in 2005/06 to 1,457 in 2006/07.  • Twenty-eight per cent of victims of firearm related offences (excluding air weapons) in 2006/07 were aged between 30 and 49 followed by 21 to 29 year olds who were victims in 22 per cent of the crimes. Persons aged less than five and over 69 years were victims in 0.2 and one per cent of the crimes respectively.  • Fifty-five per cent of all firearm offences (excluding air weapons) in 2006/07 occurred in just three police authorities: Metropolitan, Greater Manchester and West Midlands. • Overall, firearms (including air weapons) were used in 0.3 per cent of all recorded crimes, or one in every 300. This proportion is halved when air weapons are excluded.     - now that isn't quite as bad as you were suggesting, was it? And who is manipulating the statistics?   Regards Dick Smith Nowhere is there warmth to be found Among those afraid of losing their ground    Report

27/04/2008, 19:00 Dick Smith Joined on 23/08/2004 Surrey and Manche (Pays Mortainais) Posts 8,732 Re: Aspirations..................................  Gluestick wrote: However, of course, if Labour had have invoked PR as promised in their 1997 manifesto, then they would have lost after 1997. Which is pretty illustrative of how confused and dispirited the British electorate are right now: as more than one poster has stated in this thread.   Again, you got any real evidence for either of those statements? Regards Dick Smith Nowhere is there warmth to be found Among those afraid of losing their ground    Report

27/04/2008, 20:19 Gluestick Joined on 22/03/2006 UK and Nord Pas de Calais Posts 2,342 Re: Aspirations..................................  Dick Smith wrote:  Gluestick wrote: However, of course, if Labour had have invoked PR as promised in their 1997 manifesto, then they would have lost after 1997. Which is pretty illustrative of how confused and dispirited the British electorate are right now: as more than one poster has stated in this thread.     Again, you got any real evidence for either of those statements? Independent PR voting could have left Blair in coalition (23 June 05) A new study showed that Tony Blair would have not won the elections if these had been held under a proportional system. The study conducted by Patrick Dunleavy, professor of politics at LSE and Helen Margett, a professor at Oxford University, revealed that the majority system currently in place leads to distortion of voters' preferences that makes a huge difference to the patterns of political representation across Great Britain. LSE and Oxford Profs acceptable enough for you??   "Yes, but that apart, Mrs Lincoln, did you enjoy the play?" Gluestick    Report

27/04/2008, 20:34 Dick Smith Joined on 23/08/2004 Surrey and Manche (Pays Mortainais) Posts 8,732 Re: Aspirations.................................. Not really. What were the parameters of the PR system concerned? Was it realistic, or one he whisked out of the air to prove a point? Did he factor tactical voting in or out? And of course it could be nothing at all to do with Prof Dunleavy having a book out at about the same time? He also predicted in 1999 that Labour might well lose the next election (in fact it won the next two). Margetts is more usually linked to research on e-government. Both are respectable academics, but you have to look at the system of PR that they have used as their model. It seems to be worst-case, that is it takes the position most opposite from the real result; I think you can safely assume that any government in power would not pursue that option, they would look for something that gave them an advantage. Probably a transferable vote system, with thresholds. So your 'proof' turns out to be an opinion expressed in a newspaper press release about a book by two academics witha  bit of an axe to grind and a less-than-brilliant record of predicting elections. Now, how about some proof of the dispirited electorate? Regards Dick Smith Nowhere is there warmth to be found Among those afraid of losing their ground    Report

27/04/2008, 21:03 Tressy Joined on 26/02/2008 Charente-Maritime Posts 187 Re: Aspirations..................................  Dick Smith wrote: No. Your comic claimed that 8 people a day were shot. That is 2900 a year - shot. Which is not borne out by the figures... I think Dick is right here. A 'gun related crime' doesn't necessarily mean someone has been shot as was stated. Another perhaps 'picky' point is that Labour didn't 'promise' to 'invoke PR'. They said there would be a referendum on the matter in their first term. There wasn't, of course, (Bad Labour!), but if we are going to pick through old manifestos and how we were let down or deceived, we could be some considerable time, particularly if we are searching for promises that were never made in the first place. And as for Gordon Brown, well I agree with the tone and spirit of Bugbears O.P.   Imagine being Gordon Brown, right now?    Report

27/04/2008, 21:04 Russethouse Joined on 23/08/2004 Forum Moderator Posts 9,508 Re: Aspirations.................................. Now, how about some proof of the dispirited electorate? How about some hope ? www.quimperclub.org 99    Report

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